Rounding the Last Pole

[Cross-posted today at A fistful of Euros]
Launched in an act of treachery that brought down Mario Monti's technocratic government, the Italian national election campaign will end one way or another, to the relief of many, Saturday evening. What might have been a sustained debate on the merits of austerity measures in a prolonged recession, on the future of Italian employment and its welfare state or a host of other pressing issues, has instead taken on the quality of an unsavory burlesque revue. Its stars: authentic if acerbic comic Beppe Grillo, whose 5 Stars protest movement may yet shape the outcome, and sick joker Silvio Berlusconi, whose foolish headline grabs have used up much of the electoral space. But it has been a lavish, large-cast production, with indictments flying, old allies back-stabbing, off-color jokes and evanescent affiliations, a Fellini-esque procession of oddities and crudities unworthy of the noble republic Italy could nonetheless become.

What to expect? Given Italy's ban on published polls in the final two weeks, calling this one from Boston is something like watching a horse race through the wrong end of the binoculars--but I'm going to do it anyway. Bersani and the center-left have led all the way, notwithstanding the Monte dei Paschi banking scandal that implicates Monti as much as Bersani, and neither man in any direct way. Bersani's campaign has been steady if utterly unflamboyant; he conveys an avuncular credibility that makes it hard to brand him a flaming radical despite Berlusconi's many tries. He has sought international credibility in Berlin and in the American press, and has scrupulously balanced his attachments to rising centrist Matteo Renzi on his right and leftist but circumspect Nichi Vendola to his left. Nothing suggests that Bersani will be dislodged from the #1 spot, and thus control of the lower house.

But can he form a stable government? That's a question about the Senate, and really about 2 or 3 key regions that will decide it: Lombardy, Sicily, maybe Campania. This interesting poll predicts a one-vote plurality for the center-left: it may be a long night for Pier Luigi. If he falls short, Monti's centrist coalition acquires what corporate types call a 'golden seat' at the table, with considerable leverage over fiscal policy.

But Monti himself has been the great disappointment of the season. All the EU heavies have lobbied for him, with possibly negative effect. Italian voters may respect him but don't seem to like him, and his campaign has never achieved lift-off. With fewer distractions this could be the real story of the campaign: even Italy's desperate straits and Monti's exemplary financial credentials are not enough to sell austerity to a chronically hurting electorate--liberal politicians throughout Europe, beware! As I've noted elsewhere, Monti's persistent efforts to split Bersani from Vendola have miserably failed, and Monti has lurched from accomodation to hostility to a final call for a renewed 'grand coalition.' He may yet find himself part of one, but no thanks to his nondescript political skills.

Vendola, meanwhile, has shown himself to be a team player, capable of flashes of wit such as this wonderful Tweet. He has hewed to a steady left line, insisting that workers' rights and the full social safety net must be cornerstones of any 'reform', but like Bersani he seems a lot less scary than his right-wing detractors would prefer. Look for Vendola in a prominent place in Bersani's government.

But will Grillo's anti-political movement obtain an intractable bloc in the new Parliament? Populist protests are notoriously hard to measure, though Grillo's internet-savvy and personally charismatic style have made an indisputable and perhaps permanent impact. My own hunch is that on Sunday Grillo may underperform, losing a share of his 15% to that other discreet contender, Abstention. This shadow-candidate is thought to command 30% already, and I wonder: instead of showing their disdain for politics by going out to vote for Grillo, why won't a fair proportion of his supporters send the same message by staying home? Well, maybe because they love Beppe--we'll see.

In any case, Berlusconi's faux-populism can't hold a candle to Grillo's real deal. The Cavalier still stands to win a substantial fraction--25%?--but without Grillo he would have had a better chance to harvest the broad dissatisfaction with Monti. Why this cadaverous has-been still gets even 1% is a mystery to me, but I remain confident that he will be shut out of any new government. Why? Because he is pure poison.

So I'm among the few who wait optimistically for Monday's verdict. Last spring I hoped Hollande would feel empowered to contest Merkel's disastrous orthodoxy. I noted the brief but surprising flourish of the Dutch Socialists last fall; I observe Alexis Tsipris's recent arrival on the main stage, and sense a gathering change of mood in much of Europe, perhaps in time for next year's Euro-elections. A Bersani-Vendola government would move the Old Continent a few more cautious steps in that direction. Avanti!