Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Pols and Polls

While all high-minded readers know that the important stories 6 weeks before an election are about issues, alliances, substantive stuff, deep down what we all want to know is: WHO'S WINNING? Happily, Philippe Ridet in Monday's Monde  is pleased to gratify us with the results of an ispo poll published 1/6 (though I can't find it on the ispo website). So here it is:



  • Bersani                    32-3%
  •     + SEL, other left  38%
  • Berlusconi               19%
  •               + Lega       28%
  • Monti                       14-5%
Ridet doesn't mention Grillo (or other lesser candidates), though others see a drop in 5 Stelle's star to 13% or so. Disclaimer: none of this means anything, with Monti just entering the lists and the PdL/Lega deal still brand-new (and perhaps volatile?), lots will assuredly change. And with Vendola suddenly breaking his silence and swinging freely at Monti ... who knows how the PD/SEL arrangement will hold up? But as things heat up, this benchmark may be worth noting ...

1 Comments:

At January 8, 2013 at 6:51 AM , OpenID dojero said...

I agree it's much too early to take away much from the polls. Perhaps more interesting is the formation of the PDL/Lega coalition. As Ridet points out (though he's dismissive of it), Berlusconi was only able to secure the alliance by agreeing not to stand as Prime Minister.

I think Ridet is wrong to suggest that this is a small concession by Berlusconi. For a man with his ego and need for power, it's giving up quite a bit. Berlusconi did say that perhaps he'd take up the economy minister position (the position once held by Tremonti, who is now the possible Prime Minister candidate).

The good news from these polls is that Monti, in spite of his pontificating tweets and speeches, remains at at less than 15%. At 38%, Bersani's coalition is within reach of being able to form a true center-left government (perhaps even more left than center).

 

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